Um ponto obscuro da lei eleitoral grega

Um artigo de 2007 do Athens News (via Fruits and Votes), quando foram aprovadas as modificações da lei eleitoral grega que subiram o bónus para o partido mais votado de 40 para 50 deputados:

IN KEEPING with a tradition set by former Greek governments - to pass an electoral law from which it will benefit - the Karamanlis administration has sent its own electoral reform bill to parliament. There are just three changes to the existing law, but they could prove significant in shaping thecountry's political map for years to come.

The most important departure from the current law is that the party that manages to gather the most votes will receive an extra 10 seats, bringing the number of its electoral bonus seats - aimed at guaranteeing that the first party will be able to form an outright parliamentary majority - to 50. The rest of the seats are allocated fairly proportionately.

It is a change that keeps almost everyone happy, including the smaller parties- the winners of the electoral law that was voted by Pasok during its lastterm in office, which ensured their biggest representation in parliament in over a decade.

However, the changes might prove a boomerang for the ruling party. In order to stop electoral law changes, especially those designed to trip-up political adversaries, the 2001 constitution stipulates that they be enforced after the next scheduled election. This means that the next election will take place under the current electoral rules. By the time the new rules come into effect,the balance might have tipped against ND, in which case the party will find itself in a most unfortunate position.

In their report in support of the changes, the two relevant ministers,Interior Minister Prokopis Pavlopoulos and Justice Minister Sotiris Hatzigakis, explained the reason behind them, saying "The result of theSeptember 16 elections proved in an indisputable way that the electoral law did not fulfil one of its two basic aims - that is to ensure the first party a comfortable majority of parliamentary seats, despite the fact that it got nearly 4 percent more votes than the following party."

ND only managed to obtain 152 votes in the last election, even though it received almost 42 percent of the vote. The 1996 election results were practically the reverse - Pasok received around 42 percent of the vote, and ND trailed by around four percentage points. However, Pasok established acomfortable parliamentary majority of 162 seats.

Another change to the law could best be described as a pre-emptive strike. It denies the 50-seat bonus to party coalitions.

Finally, a third change forces parties to include women candidates on their ballots. Essentially, each sex must be represented on ballots by at least 30 percent. Currently, just 48 out of Greece's 300 MPs are female, while out of atotal of 40 government ministers, just two are women.

Pasok spokesperson Yiannis Ragousis said the bill "proved the government is a deeply conservative force".

His party has proposed far-reaching changes that would give Greece a system similar to that currently operating in Germany - a more proportional one with some MP's elected by their constituents and others from a party list.

Em primeiro lugar, note-se que afinal, esta mudança legislativa que só entrou em vigor na segunda eleição depois de ser aprovada sempre beneficiou o partido que a aprovou - a Nova Democracia. Mas o ponto que quero chamar a atenção é outro, e que afecta as contas que algumas pessoas (incluindo eu) fazem quando vêem as sondagens: "Another change to the law could best be described as a pre-emptive strike. It
denies the 50-seat bonus to party coalitions." - o SYRIZA é uma coligação, pelo que, em principio, se for o mais votado não terá direito ao tal bónus [parece que há uma clausula estipulando que uma coligação pode ter direito aos 50 deputados de bónus se tiver o dobro dos votos do partido individual mais votado e que o SYRIZA está ponderando registar-se oficialmente como partido].